Memory Apocalypse - Up to 50% Increase in Prices Already!

[Tim Mayo]

If you are planning to buy memory cards, SSD drives, laptops, mobile phones or anything at all that contains DRAM or NAND memory then the time to do so is either today or preferably yesterday.

Prices are really starting to shoot up much more than I think anyone was anticipating. I've just received a new price list from one of the big card suppliers and their prices are up over 50% on last months prices. They are not the only one putting up prices either.

Transcend has apparently not received any new NAND Flash shipments from their suppliers SanDisk and Samsung since at least October.

Here's a Transcend company communication:

The situation worsened in Q4 due to increased demand from large data centers and hyperscalers driven by major cloud service providers' expansion plans. All major chip manufacturers are prioritizing supply for these customers, which has led to price increases and extremely limited availability. Just last week alone, we were notified that costs had risen by 50-100%. The price-up trend continues at a very rapid pace and at an abnormal rate.

And here are a few industry articles if you are interested:

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/ssd-maker-transcend-left-lurch-171026128.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ram-storage-ridiculously-expensive-now-165119327.html
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20251201-12807.html
https://www.techpowerup.com/343493/...-see-over-60-contract-price-hikes-in-november
https://www.techpowerup.com/341578/nand-flash-shortages-may-last-10-years-phison-ceo-warns
https://www.techpowerup.com/343619/...s-transcend-left-without-supply-since-october

I definitely picked the worst time to start a business selling memory cards!

I wonder if AI can be used to solve the shortage issues along with all the other problems on our little planet!

 

[iamdlewis]

I wonder if AI can be used to solve the shortage issues along with all the other problems on our little planet!

Well I asked one and though I believe the quickest solution would be to stop using AI, it did not suggest that. Some of the answers do seem reasonable but others are kind of on the wish side.

It did say:
Quickly resolving a DRAM and NAND memory shortage in 2025 requires a shift from scaling raw capacity to aggressive efficiency and strategic procurement, as new manufacturing plants (fabs) typically take 2–3 years to come online.

1. Technological Solutions for Immediate Efficiency

• Compute Express Link (CXL): Deploying CXL 2.0/3.0 allows data centers to create dynamic memory pools. Instead of overprovisioning each server, multiple CPUs and GPUs can share a central pool of memory, maximizing utilization of existing hardware.
• Tiered Storage Architectures: Shifting less-critical AI data to "cold" or "warm" tiers using cheaper, higher-density technologies like QLC NAND or high-capacity HDDs frees up high-performance DRAM and HBM for mission-critical training tasks.
• Advanced AI Data Architectures: Implementing specialized architectures can reduce high-end SSD requirements by 35–65% and lower total storage CAPEX by up to 70%.
• Photonics Integration: New photonic engines increase usable throughput per device, allowing GPUs to spend more time computing and less time waiting on I/O, which reduces the need for duplicate data copies across clusters.

2. Supply Chain and Procurement Strategies

• Multi-year Capacity Reservations: Moving from transactional "spot buys" to long-term supply agreements locks in guaranteed slices of future production.
• Design for Flexibility: Engineering platforms to support multiple memory types (e.g., both DDR4 and DDR5) or various module densities gives supply chain teams more options if specific parts become unavailable.
• Strategic Sourcing & Buffer Stock: Establishing relationships with certified independent distributors helps secure hard-to-find components or "drop-in" alternatives. Maintaining 4–6 weeks of safety stock can protect production during peak shortages.

3. Manufacturing and Market Shifts

• Advanced Node Transitions: Accelerating the ramp-up of next-generation nodes (like 1-gamma DRAM and G9 NAND) improves bit growth per wafer.
• Capacity Reallocation: Major suppliers are currently prioritizing High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI chips. To mitigate consumer-level shortages, some manufacturers are winding down consumer brands (e.g., Micron’s Crucial) to focus exclusively on data center demand.
• New Fabrication Investment: While not an immediate fix, massive capital investments—such as SK Hynix’s planned $500 billion for four new fabs—are necessary to eventually resolve the supply-demand gap by 2027–2028.

 

[Tim Mayo]

I hope I'm wrong, but I expect all of the brands who rely on other businesses to make their memory modules are going to be up the creek without a paddle.

Of course, less players means more pricing control and profit for the big players, and the consumer as always loses out.

I asked Angelbird recently if they could confirm where their memory modules and controllers are made. On their packaging it only says: "Designed and Engineered in Austria. Which to me means they purchase their NAND memory and controllers from either China or Taiwan, then assemble them in Austria.

Not surprisingly they didn't get back to me. But their prices started going up long before anyone else, so that pretty much answers the question for me unless they tell me otherwise.