Memory Apocalypse - Up to 50% Increase in Prices Already!

[Tim Mayo]

If you are planning to buy memory cards, SSD drives, laptops, mobile phones or anything at all that contains DRAM or NAND memory then the time to do so is either today or preferably yesterday.

Prices are really starting to shoot up much more than I think anyone was anticipating. I've just received a new price list from one of the big card suppliers and their prices are up over 50% on last months prices. They are not the only one putting up prices either.

Transcend has apparently not received any new NAND Flash shipments from their suppliers SanDisk and Samsung since at least October.

Here's a Transcend company communication:

The situation worsened in Q4 due to increased demand from large data centers and hyperscalers driven by major cloud service providers' expansion plans. All major chip manufacturers are prioritizing supply for these customers, which has led to price increases and extremely limited availability. Just last week alone, we were notified that costs had risen by 50-100%. The price-up trend continues at a very rapid pace and at an abnormal rate.

And here are a few industry articles if you are interested:

• https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/ssd-maker-transcend-left-lurch-171026128.html
• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ram-storage-ridiculously-expensive-now-165119327.html
• https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20251201-12807.html
• https://www.techpowerup.com/343493/...-see-over-60-contract-price-hikes-in-november
• https://www.techpowerup.com/341578/nand-flash-shortages-may-last-10-years-phison-ceo-warns
• https://www.techpowerup.com/343619/...s-transcend-left-without-supply-since-october

I definitely picked the worst time to start a business selling memory cards!

I wonder if AI can be used to solve the shortage issues along with all the other problems on our little planet!

 

[iamdlewis]

I wonder if AI can be used to solve the shortage issues along with all the other problems on our little planet!

Well I asked one and though I believe the quickest solution would be to stop using AI, it did not suggest that. Some of the answers do seem reasonable but others are kind of on the wish side.

It did say:
Quickly resolving a DRAM and NAND memory shortage in 2025 requires a shift from scaling raw capacity to aggressive efficiency and strategic procurement, as new manufacturing plants (fabs) typically take 2–3 years to come online.

1. Technological Solutions for Immediate Efficiency

• Compute Express Link (CXL): Deploying CXL 2.0/3.0 allows data centers to create dynamic memory pools. Instead of overprovisioning each server, multiple CPUs and GPUs can share a central pool of memory, maximizing utilization of existing hardware.
• Tiered Storage Architectures: Shifting less-critical AI data to "cold" or "warm" tiers using cheaper, higher-density technologies like QLC NAND or high-capacity HDDs frees up high-performance DRAM and HBM for mission-critical training tasks.
• Advanced AI Data Architectures: Implementing specialized architectures can reduce high-end SSD requirements by 35–65% and lower total storage CAPEX by up to 70%.
• Photonics Integration: New photonic engines increase usable throughput per device, allowing GPUs to spend more time computing and less time waiting on I/O, which reduces the need for duplicate data copies across clusters.

2. Supply Chain and Procurement Strategies

• Multi-year Capacity Reservations: Moving from transactional "spot buys" to long-term supply agreements locks in guaranteed slices of future production.
• Design for Flexibility: Engineering platforms to support multiple memory types (e.g., both DDR4 and DDR5) or various module densities gives supply chain teams more options if specific parts become unavailable.
• Strategic Sourcing & Buffer Stock: Establishing relationships with certified independent distributors helps secure hard-to-find components or "drop-in" alternatives. Maintaining 4–6 weeks of safety stock can protect production during peak shortages.

3. Manufacturing and Market Shifts

• Advanced Node Transitions: Accelerating the ramp-up of next-generation nodes (like 1-gamma DRAM and G9 NAND) improves bit growth per wafer.
• Capacity Reallocation: Major suppliers are currently prioritizing High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI chips. To mitigate consumer-level shortages, some manufacturers are winding down consumer brands (e.g., Micron’s Crucial) to focus exclusively on data center demand.
• New Fabrication Investment: While not an immediate fix, massive capital investments—such as SK Hynix’s planned $500 billion for four new fabs—are necessary to eventually resolve the supply-demand gap by 2027–2028.

 

[Tim Mayo]

I hope I'm wrong, but I expect all of the brands who rely on other businesses to make their memory modules are going to be up the creek without a paddle.

Of course, less players means more pricing control and profit for the big players, and the consumer as always loses out.

I asked Angelbird recently if they could confirm where their memory modules and controllers are made. On their packaging it only says: "Designed and Engineered in Austria. Which to me means they purchase their NAND memory and controllers from either China or Taiwan, then assemble them in Austria.

Not surprisingly they didn't get back to me. But their prices started going up long before anyone else, so that pretty much answers the question for me unless they tell me otherwise.

 

[Chris 3754]

Tim let me get your opinion on this since you clearly know a lot more than me about memory cards. However anyone else please weigh in too. I upgraded to CFExpress cards with the purchase of my a1ii. I love that the buffer never fills and the speed in offloading 1000 photos from a hockey game is much faster than SD cards. I don’t shoot video so that is not on the table for me. Currently I put a CF in each slot and send RAW to #1 and JPEG to #2. However I have found I never needed the JPEGs and just end up reformatting both cards for the next shoot. Given the expense of cards, would I be better off only sending RAW to slot #1 and forget about using slot #2? I know I loose the backup of having pics on both slots, but I don’t shoot anything that critical and have never needed the in-camera backup. My thinking is if I rotated the cards I would effectively double their life. What are your thoughts on the life expectancy of these cards, does continuous reformatting impact their life, and are the cards reliable enough that I don’t need a backup if I see that while shooting I see that files are being written to the cards? I accept that I could screw something up in the transfer to Lightroom, but are the cards solid?

 

[Tim Mayo]

Tim let me get your opinion on this since you clearly know a lot more than me about memory cards than me. However anyone else please weigh in too. I upgraded to CFExpress cards with the purchase of my a1ii. I love that the buffer never fills and the speed in offloading 1000 photos from a hockey game is much faster than SD cards. I don’t shoot video so that is not on the table for me. Currently I put a CF in each slot and send RAW to #1 and JPEG to #2. However I have found I never needed the JPEGs and just end up reformatting both cards for the next shoot. Given the expense of cards, would I be better off only sending RAW to slot #1 and forget about using slot #2? I know I loose the backup of having pics on both slots, but I don’t shoot anything that critical and have never needed the in-camera backup. My thinking is if I rotated the cards I would effectively double their life. What are your thoughts on the life expectancy of these cards, does continuous reformatting impact their life, and are the cards reliable enough that I don’t need a backup if I see that while shooting I see that files are being written to the cards? I accept that I could screw something up in the transfer to Lightroom, but are the cards solid?

If it's critical I would always advise shooting to a second card. For what I shoot, which is mostly wildlife and motocross I only ever shoot to one card and use the second as overflow. If I was on the holiday of a lifetime or shooting a wedding I'd definitely be shooting to both cards.

Regarding card reliability. Fortunately I wrote about this in an article recently so this is almost a copy/paste job

All cards can fail prematurely but most are pretty reliable these days. CFexpress and SD cards use what is called NAND Memory, which is a type of non-volatile flash memory.

Generally the cheapest cards are using QLC NAND, next up is 3D TLC NAND, then MLC NAND, while the more expensive cards use pSLC NAND. True SLC memory is normally only found in industrial spec cards.

But this isn’t always strictly the case, and only a handful of manufacturers publish the type of NAND memory that they use.

NAND endurance is measured in program/erase (P/E) cycles, which is how many times each cell can be written before it wears out. It can also be measured in Terabytes Written (TBW).

• QLC NAND = 500 – 1,000 P/E cycles
• 3D TLC NAND = 1,000 – 3,000 P/E cycles
• MLC NAND = 3,000 – 10,000 P/E cycles
• pSLC NAND = 10,000 – 30,000 P/E cycles
• SLC NAND = 50,000 – 100,000 P/E cycles

In reality, QLC and 3D TLC NAND based cards will provide more than enough performance and endurance for 99% of photographers and film makers. I'm pretty sure I've never even formatted a single card more than 100x!

But if you only want the best, then these are the cards that I know are using pSLC NAND memory:

• Nextorage NX-A2 PRO 4.0 Type A
• Novachips Extreme CFexpress 4.0 Type A
• Nextorage NX-F2 PRO Series UHS-II SDXC V90
• Integral ULTIMAPRO X2 UHS-II SDXC V90
• Prograde SDXC UHS-II 300R V90

There might be more but it's hard to know if it's not publicly available.

 

[Chris 3754]

Thank you Tim! I am going to adopt your strategy and use slot 2 for overflow unless shooting something critical. A few weeks ago I shot three games in one day and started to keep my eye on card space. That is something I should not have to worry about if slot 2 is for overflow. Keeping my eye on shutter speed, aperture, and ISO is enough, and card space should not influence whether I hit the shutter release or not. Chris

 

[iamdlewis]

There is an odd thing that happens after you hit the overflow, the camera will switch your save slot from slot 1 to slot 2. This save will stay in place the next time you go to shoot. So if day 1 you hit the overflow and day 2 you have a slow day extract the card in slot 1 and wonder why there are no photos it is because of this. For extra fun it seems that if you were in M and hit the overflow then come back later with new cards M will still be pointing to slot 2 but your memory setting for 1/2/3 will be pointing to slot 1 (assuming that was the case when they were set) and if you go back to M that will still be pointing at slot 2.
I know this happens with the A1 lineup. Not sure about the others as I don't think I ever hit the overflow in my A9 or A7Riv days.

 

[Chris 3754]

There is an odd thing that happens after you hit the overflow, the camera will switch your save slot from slot 1 to slot 2. This save will stay in place the next time you go to shoot. So if day 1 you hit the overflow and day 2 you have a slow day extract the card in slot 1 and wonder why there are no photos it is because of this. For extra fun it seems that if you were in M and hit the overflow then come back later with new cards M will still be pointing to slot 2 but your memory setting for 1/2/3 will be pointing to slot 1 (assuming that was the case when they were set) and if you go back to M that will still be pointing at slot 2.
I know this happens with the A1 lineup. Not sure about the others as I don't think I ever hit the overflow in my A9 or A7Riv days.

Interesting, thank you!

 

[AlphaWorld]

I went looking for an extra external SSD starting about a month back, and I saw exactly what you saw, @Tim Mayo - prices suddenly higher by around 50%. I hunted around, and last week found a place that still had some stock at the old price. I had started looking for an 8TB, but those are ridiculously expensive now, so I settled for a 4TB.

I'd thought it might be a transient issue, but it sounds like it's not

I think I might see about getting another CFeA v4 card before they get super-expensive.

 

[Tim Mayo]

I went looking for an extra external SSD starting about a month back, and I saw exactly what you saw, @Tim Mayo - prices suddenly higher by around 50%. I hunted around, and last week found a place that still had some stock at the old price. I had started looking for an 8TB, but those are ridiculously expensive now, so I settled for a 4TB.

I'd thought it might be a transient issue, but it sounds like it's not

I think I might see about getting another CFeA v4 card before they get super-expensive.

I could do with another SSD drive for backups as well. I don't desperately need it but don't really want to be paying twice as much or more in a few months time when I do. Although I have so many old memory cards that I've just used for testing I could always use those if I needed to

Some of the worst case predictions I've read are saying this could go on for 10 years! The big players have been scaling back production since 2023 because they were selling memory at a loss which obviously wasn't sustainable. So now we are dealing with scaled back production and massively increased demand. Unless the AI bubble bursts the general consensus appears to be that it's going to get worse before it gets better.